Interest rates hit historically low levels last year due to the pandemic outbreak and the worst quarterly decline in economic growth ever. Those rates have helped millions of homeowners to refinance and save significant money on interest expense. On the purchase side, along with several other tailwinds, low rates have fueled a bonanza in housing.
Fortunately, we are closer to getting past the pandemic as vaccines are now seeing widespread distribution. This, along with enormous stimulus measures, pent-up consumer demand, and easy monetary policy, tells us the good times of ultra-low rates may have come to an end.
To back up this claim, a Freddie Mac spokesperson said, “New COVID-19 cases are receding, which is encouraging and that has led to a rise in Treasury rates.”
Translation: Higher rates may be ahead, but not so fast. The Federal Reserve has played a pivotal role in keeping rates relatively low by purchasing $120 billion worth of Treasurys and mortgage-backed-securities per month. But despite those efforts, rates have crept steadily higher in the past month with the 10-year yield moving from .50% last August to the current level of 1.15% due in part to an improving economy, along with the aforementioned vaccination distribution and COVID-19 losing its grip.
Should rates move too high too quickly, the Fed will likely do more to try and pin down long-term rates, like purchasing even more bonds. But be aware, rates are subject to inflation expectations along with the direction of stocks and bonds and the economic landscape, to name a few.
Bottom line: If the economy continues to improve, rates have no other direction but to move higher. Last year this time in a strong economy, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 3.47% and if rates were to return to those levels, they would still be near all-time record lows.
Source: Mortgage Market Guide
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